Accounting for net changes in ecosystem services due to changing land-uses: Case study on an agricultural-mining landscape mosaic in Carolina, Mpumalanga

In the context of rapid land use changes (leading to biodiversity losses), increased water use and pollution (e.g. acid mine drainage due to mining activities) and perceptions (especially from farmers) that coal mining activities are negatively affecting current and future livelihoods in the Carolina area, this study aimed at understanding how different land uses and practices change natural capital (NC) stocks and flows, now into the future (up to 50 years from now). More specifically, what are the net impacts of past, existing and future land uses on NC stocks, flows and values of the ecosystems in the Carolina area? What are the associated economic benefits and costs? What policy implications for the policy and decision-making with respect to land-use change and for the on-site management of natural capital stocks, flows and values at the property (e.g. farm, mine) and catchment levels? Through practitioner and expert opinions, mixed quantitative – qualitative modelling of natural capital stocks, supply and demand for ecosystem services as well as ecosystem services stress was undertaken. The results show how past and current land uses lead to the current structure of ecosystem services supply and demand in the study area, with high demands and relatively low supply of water-related services (hence high pressures on such services). Interestingly, high pressures also exist for cultivated crops (important economic activity in the study area, supporting many livelihoods), fuel resources (low supply levels, as landscape originally dominated by grasslands and users still depend a lot on firewood), air pollution regulation (dust control), medicinal plants (high levels of demands but depleted resources) and coal / mined resources (critical economic activity in the study area, supporting many livelihoods, but limited supplies under current land-use patterns). Looking into the future (50 years from now), scenarios combining further increases in the overall population (high demands for water-related ecosystem services) and in the community depending on mining activities, increased stress profiles for most ecosystem services (especially biodiversity conservation and cultivated crops) were found, with domestic water supply, water quality (dilution and assimilation) and water regulation services under severe pressure. Because coal mining is not sustainable, as all resources may be used up in the medium to long term (100 – 150 years), local communities will likely fall into a lock-in situation, because reversing to other land uses is not likely to be feasible from a technical, ecological and / or financial perspective under current mine closure and rehabilitation practices The results of this study thus strongly suggest that net impact accounting (i.e. net changes in natural capital stocks and services) should be used a common, shared tool to understand, assess and drive environmental management practices by all land-users. This would involve convincing key stakeholders (government agencies, local municipalities, Inkomati Usuthu Catchment Management Agency, mining companies, farmers) to design and implement policies to reach no-net-loss or even net gains in key natural capital stocks (wetlands, natural and improved grasslands) and services (foods, water supply and regulation, waste assimilation and dilution, dust regulation) in the short to long-term, depending on the local context and available resources. Yet, improving land management practices would likely require embedding no-net-loss obligations in authorisations and environmental management / audit plans for both mining and farming operations as well making strong financial assurance safeguards mandatory. This calls for political commitment at the highest level as well as active and regular monitoring by relevant government departments and (an empowered) civil society. Given recent talks of the financial difficulties experienced by the coal industry, this may prove difficult to achieve, thus the alternative of reconsidering which economic activities should be allowed to be carried out in the Mpumalanga Highveld.